For medical intelligence analysts, the old adage is true: better safe than sorry. For NCMI, this means speed is more important than accuracy. Getting the warning out early gives frontline healthcare agencies the advantage of preparing for a possibility if a pandemic or other incident is to arise.

INDICATORS

NCMI monitors for signs of illness and environmental contamination worldwide. In the Intelligence Community, these warning signs are called indicators.

What do the indicators identify?

When all the indicators are viewed collectively, they paint a picture. In the case of H1N1 in Mexico, the increased hospitalizations showed that the disease was serious enough to require hospital admission. The sale of face masks showed that people thought it spread through the air and could be transmitted through coughing and sneezing. The high egg prices showed it could be avian in origin.

These and other indicators factored into NCMI’s analysis of the situation.

DIA first exposed Soviet military capabilities to the general public in 1981 with the inaugural edition of Soviet Military Power. The publication detailed weapons, like the SA-8 surface-to-air missile (SAM), nicknamed GECKO. DIA’s analysis of the unique threat posed by this mobile missile system would directly help protect American aircraft and crews.

The first edition of Soviet Military Power was not dated, as a second edition was not planned. However, its value was quickly established and it became a decade-long series.

The Soviet Union launched a dangerous array of developmental weapons programs throughout the late 1970s, despite its denials of these programs. It was DIA’s "Soviet Military Power" report that brought these veiled capabilities into the public light.

DIA used highly classified, all-source intelligence to update senior civilian, military, and allied decision makers about the increasing Soviet threat. But, by 1981, it became critical to inform a wider, public audience at the unclassified level.

DIA produced a series of declassified books that accurately portrayed the Soviet threat for all to see. To accomplish this, DIA declassified some information while eliminating those elements that revealed intelligence sources and methods.

Knowledge of Soviet military strength allowed the U.S. to avoid strategic surprise. Exposing the truth about the Soviet military to the general public helped ensure the United States and its Allies could counter the threat.

A Need for Public Awareness

After a 1980 briefing about Soviet capabilities by DIA’s director Lieutenant General Eugene Tighe Jr., the Senate Armed Services Committee, and specifically Senator Ted Kennedy, asked if DIA could publicly release unclassified intelligence on the rising Soviet military threat.

The senators believed accurate information was the key to elevating public awareness of the issue. The result was the "Soviet Military Power" publication.

The clamor for more information by Americans was matched by our NATO Allies, and DIA was asked to make another public version of "Soviet Military Power" within a year.

Soviet Military Power Paintings (reproductions)

The original photo shows several Soviet officers at an air base easily identifiable to those with first-hand knowledge of Blackjack bombers. Had this photograph been used in the book, the Soviets would have been able to determine the exact day and time the photograph was taken based on the officers present. Cross-referencing dates and people who were in the area would then allow them to narrow down the suspect pool, endangering U.S. operations in the U.S.S.R.—and the lives of the officers involved.

Why Paintings?

DIA had to protect its sources and methods. Releasing original images would likely have compromised diplomats, spies, and double agents. As a result, DIA made the unprecedented decision to depict Soviet capabilities through art.

In 1981 there was little to no computerized photo manipulation. Consequently, DIA artists retouched images by hand or created entirely new works for "Soviet Military Power".

In some cases, there were no photographs, and the artist worked from raw intelligence, much like a sketch artist drawing a suspect from a witness’ description.

The array of artwork shows the full range of Soviet military capabilities, from submarines patrolling below the sea to space program equipment flying above the earth.